Why you won’t see the new supermoon
This year will have 13 lunar perigees. Sometimes the year’s closest perigee is called proxigee. In any year, it’s either the new moon or the full moon that aligns with the closest perigee (proxigee). So watch out for any proxigean new or full moon because that’s when large perigean spring tides (or proxigean spring tides) are likely to occur.
For the first time since 2009, the centers of the Earth and moon will not come closer than 221,830 miles (357,000 km) in 2017. Although it’s the proxigee new moon that brings the moon closest to Earth for the year on May 25, 2017, it’s actually the absence of a proxigee full moon in 2017 that enables the proxigee new moon to lay claim to the closest supermoon crown in 2017.
The full moon loses out to the new moon this year because proxigee full moons recur in periods of 14 lunar or synodic months (14 returns to full moon). This 14-lunar-month cycle is appreciably longer than one calendar year in length, representing a duration of about one year and 48 days. Since the last proxigee full moon came late in the year in 2016, the following proxigee full moon won’t come until after 2017 has passed, or in early 2018. The most recent proxigee full moon (356,509 km) took place on November 14, 2016, and the next proxigee full moon will happen on January 2, 2018 (356,565 km).
Proxigee full moon cycle
Amazingly enough, proxigee full moons recur every 14 lunar months (14 returns to full moon) because 14 lunar months are nearly commensurate to 15 returns to perigee:
14 lunar months x 29.53059 days = 413.428 days
15 returns to perigee x 27.55455 days = 413.318 days
This 413-day period of time is approximately equal to one year, one month and 18 days. Therefore, the proxigee full moon comes about one month and 18 days later each year, as shown on the list of proxigean full moons below.
Proxigean full moons from 2010 to 2020
2010 Jan 30 (356,593 km)
2011 Mar 19 (356,575 km)
2012 May 06 (356,955 km)
2013 Jun 23 (356,991 km)
2014 Aug 10 (356,896 km)
2015 Sep 28 (356,877 km)
2016 Nov 14 (356,509 km)
2018 Jan 02 (356,565 km)
2019 Feb 19 (356,761 km)
2020 Apr 08 (356,907 km)
Alas, the proxigean full moon skips the year 2017 altogether because the most recent proxigee full moon fell on November 14, 2016, and the next one won’t occur until January 2, 2018.
Bottom line: For the first time since 2009, the new moon – instead of the full moon – will coincide with the year’s closest perigee (proxigee); and also for the first time since 2009, the year’s closest perigee (proxigee) will NOT come closer than 357,000 km (221,830 miles).
Bruce McClure has served as lead writer for EarthSky’s popular Tonight pages since 2004. He’s a sundial aficionado, whose love for the heavens has taken him to Lake Titicaca in Bolivia and sailing in the North Atlantic, where he earned his celestial navigation certificate through the School of Ocean Sailing and Navigation. He also writes and hosts public astronomy programs and planetarium programs in and around his home in upstate New York.
Article originally published on EarthSky